State Repression and Movement Fragmentation: An Interactionist Approach

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Does state repression result in increased or decreased levels of fragmentation within an opposition movement? Despite the presence of conflicting findings in the existing research on the topic, there is limited success in reconciling the inconsistency. The article addresses the gap by developing a relatively new concept that defines fragmentation as the extent to which informal interactions among individuals involved in a movement across various dimensions are missing. It argues that state repression tends to foster unity across diverse groups while simultaneously diminishing cohesion within each specific group. Conversely, repression can lower unity across participants with varying preferences, while fostering cohesion among participants who share a common preference. The article utilizes the Exponential Random Graph Model with tweets generated during the 2011 Occupy Wall Street movement. As the empirical analysis supports the argument, the article demonstrates the usefulness of its approach in highlighting an unexplored aspect of the phenomenon. 

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What to Signal: Effect of Protester Reaction to Violent Flanks on Mobilization

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Does the emergence of violent flanks lead to augmentation or reduction in the mobilization of an unarmed protest movement? The article seeks to reconcile the conflicting results in the literature by shifting its attention from the simple presence of violent flanks to the responses of moderate protesters toward these flanks. By utilizing prospect theory, the article argues that diverse responses, such as endorsing or opposing violent flanks, have distinct effects on protest mobilization. Specifically, endorsing violent flanks fosters mobilization when the government previously observed the protest as unified. Conversely, the endorsement tends to diminish mobilization where the government formerly viewed the protest as fragmented. Additionally, opposing violent flanks positively contributes to mobilization in situations where the government initially evaluated the protest as being divided. The hypotheses are supported primarily by analyzing the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes dataset (NAVCO 2.1), Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), and examining the 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition protest.