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Under Review

State Repression and Movement Fragmentation: An Interactionist Approach

Does state repression result in increased or decreased levels of fragmentation within an opposition movement? Despite the presence of conflicting findings in the existing research on the topic, there is limited success in reconciling the inconsistency. The article addresses the gap by developing a relatively new concept that defines fragmentation as the extent to which informal interactions among individuals involved in a movement across various dimensions are missing. It argues that state repression tends to foster unity across diverse groups while simultaneously diminishing cohesion within each specific group. Conversely, repression can lower unity across participants with varying preferences, while fostering cohesion among participants who share a common preference. The article utilizes the Exponential Random Graph Model with tweets generated during the 2011 Occupy Wall Street movement. As the empirical analysis supports the argument, the article demonstrates the usefulness of its approach in highlighting an unexplored aspect of the phenomenon. 

What to Signal: Effect of Protester Reaction to Violent Flanks on Mobilization

Does the emergence of violent flanks lead to augmentation or reduction in the mobilization of an unarmed protest movement? The article seeks to reconcile the conflicting results in the literature by shifting its attention from the simple presence of violent flanks to the responses of moderate protesters toward these flanks. By utilizing prospect theory, the article argues that diverse responses, such as endorsing or opposing violent flanks, have distinct effects on protest mobilization. The argument is supported primarily by analyzing the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes dataset (NAVCO 2.1) and examining the 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition protest.

Works in Progress

Violence and Gender Equality in Protest

Why do certain protest movements opt for nonviolent approaches, while others adopt more aggressive tactics? Addressing the limitations in the literature, the article argues that the relationship between gender equality and the protest’s opposition to violence follows an inverted U shape. This pattern arises from women protesters’ desire to proactively prevent the emergence of gendered division of labor and marginalization, which frequently follows instances of protest violence. This argument offers a new perspective suggesting that, in the context of protests, increased gender equality might be less successful in preventing violence. The argument is primarily examined using the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO 2.1) dataset along with a variety of gender equality indicators. The statistical analysis, employing various models, offers support for the argument.

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