Research | Hansol Kwak

Under Review

Repression and Multifront Reversal in Movement Fragmentation

Does state repression result in increased or decreased levels of fragmentation within an opposition movement? Despite the presence of conflicting findings in the existing research on the topic, there is limited success in reconciling the inconsistency. The article addresses the gap by examining how repression can affect various levels and dimensions of fragmentation in different directions. It argues that repression leads movements to shift each dimension and level of fragmentation in the opposite direction from its previous trend. The article employs the Separable Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model, using the frequency of interactions as the main indicator, to analyze tweets from the 2011 Occupy Wall Street movement. The empirical analysis supports the argument, showing that the two repressive events—the Brooklyn Mass Arrests on October 1 and the Attempted Eviction of Zuccotti Park on October 14—shift different dimensions and levels of fragmentation in opposite directions compared to prior periods.

Navigating Violence Between Surface and Below:

Effect of Protester Reaction to Violent Flanks on Mobilization

Does the emergence of violent flanks increase or decrease the mobilization of unarmed protests? This article seeks to reconcile the conflicting results in the literature by shifting its attention to two factors that remain unexamined in the field. First, it focuses on nonviolent protesters' responses to violent flanks rather than their presence. Second, it highlights the discrepancy between surface-level and actual protest fragmentation, shaped by nonparticipants' limited observation of true fragmentation. This article argues that nonviolent protesters' endorsement for or opposition to violent flanks affects mobilization differently depending on the extent of fragmentation discrepancy. The greater the discrepancy, the more nonviolent protesters’ responses influence mobilization, with the direction determined by whether surface-level or actual fragmentation is more pronounced. The hypotheses are supported by analyzing the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes dataset (NAVCO 2.1), Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), and examining the 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition protest.

Works in Progress

Coordination to Death: Regional Stigmatization and Protester Casualties

What explains the magnitude of protester casualties? While the literature on state repression offers valuable insights into explaining variations in protester casualties, it largely neglects the role of protesters' rational decisions to resist state repression. The article proposes that regional stigmatization enables residents and protesters to resolve the Hobbesian dilemma of choosing between a repressive government and anarchy. This expands the pool of audiences who will positively remember protesters’ resistance to repression, fostering greater willingness among protesters to escalate and endure repression. Therefore, more effective regional stigmatization results in higher protester casualties. The argument is corroborated through a spatial analysis of geospatial coordinates from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), Social Conflict and Analysis Data (SCAD), and nightlight data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Additionally, causal mechanisms are supported by a descriptive case study of the 1980 Gwangju Uprising in South Korea.

Protest Violence and Gender Equality: A Rationalist Approach

How does gender equality affect the prospect of protest violence? This article addresses gaps in the existing literature by emphasizing the rational incentives of women protesters to reduce protest violence rather than attributing their actions to biological or cultural factors. In societies with either low or high levels of gender equality, women’s costs of marginalization due to violence tend to be higher compared to those with intermediate levels. Consequently, in societies with either low or high gender equality, women protesters are more likely to stand at the frontlines to prevent violence, thereby reducing the probability of violence. Thus, protest violence is more likely to occur in societies with intermediate levels of gender equality. The argument is primarily supported by multiple datasets, including Women in Resistance (WiRe), Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), and Social Conflict Analysis Data (SCAD).