Under Review
Overcoming Isolation: Dramatic Confrontation and Protester Casualties
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Why do some protests result in more fatalities in response to repression than others? The literature largely neglects the conditions that influence protesters' decisions to risk their lives in the face of repression. This article argues that as protests become more regionally isolated, protesters are more likely to confront repression, leading to higher fatalities. To prevent state injustice from being overlooked or forgotten by the general public, protesters become increasingly motivated to highlight it through dramatic confrontations, particularly in more geographically isolated areas. This argument is supported by OLS regression and meta-regression analysis of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models within an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) framework, utilizing Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) from 1997 to 2025 across African countries. Causal mechanisms are presented by a descriptive case study of the 1980 Gwangju Uprising in South Korea.
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Navigating Violence Between Surface and Below:
Effect of Protester Reaction to Violent Flanks on Mobilization
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Does the emergence of violent flanks increase or decrease the mobilization of unarmed protests? This article seeks to reconcile the conflicting results in the literature by shifting its attention to two factors that remain unexamined in the field. First, it focuses on nonviolent protesters' responses to violent flanks rather than their presence. Second, it highlights the discrepancy between surface-level and actual protest fragmentation, shaped by nonparticipants' limited observation of true fragmentation. This article argues that nonviolent protesters' endorsement for or opposition to violent flanks affects mobilization differently depending on the extent of fragmentation discrepancy. The greater the discrepancy, the more nonviolent protesters’ responses influence mobilization, with the direction determined by whether surface-level or actual fragmentation is more pronounced. The hypotheses are supported by analyzing the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes dataset (NAVCO 2.1), Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), and examining the 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition protest.
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Riding the Tide: How Online Activists Leverage Repression
How does repression reshape the way online activists engage with their target audiences? While existing research focuses largely on changes in the level of online participation after repression, it overlooks how activists strategically respond to maximize their impact. Addressing this gap, this article argues that repression prompts online activists to increase interactions with different groups, aiming to broaden their support base by signaling openness and inclusivity amid heightened public attention. Using permutation tests and ARIMA models within an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) framework, the study examines assortativity and the proportion of cross-group ties among Twitter users during the 2011 Occupy Wall Street movement. The findings support the argument, revealing that two key repressive events—the Brooklyn Bridge mass arrests on October 1 and the eviction threat of Zuccotti Park on October 13—significantly altered the communication patterns of online activists, leading to greater cross-group engagement in response to state repression.
Works in Progress
When Expectations Break: Subjective Repression and Protest Mobilization
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This study investigates how state repression influences protest mobilization, addressing the long-standing inconsistencies in empirical findings. Rather than relying on objective measures such as fatality counts or arrests that assume repression is experienced uniformly, the study introduces a discrepancy-based indicator that captures how repression deviates from individuals’ subjective expectations. These expectations are formed through cumulative exposure to past repression and are shaped by temporal, social, and political context. The central argument is that mobilization is driven not by the absolute level of repression, but by whether today's repression feels unexpectedly high or low relative to what people have come to expect. Using event-level data from ACLED, NAVCO, and SCAD, the analysis combines fixed effects regression and cumulative link mixed models to examine protest participation across country-level and local-level panels. Results show that the discrepancy measure consistently predicts a U-shaped relationship between repression and mobilization: individuals are more likely to participate when repression diverges from their reference point. In contrast, models using conventional repression measures yield inconsistent patterns. These findings suggest that incorporating subjective expectations can clarify the repression–mobilization relationship and help reconcile fragmented results in the existing literature.
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Protest Violence and Gender Equality: A Rationalist Approach
How does gender equality affect the prospect of protest violence? This article addresses gaps in the existing literature by emphasizing the rational incentives of women protesters to reduce protest violence rather than attributing their actions to biological or cultural factors. In societies with either low or high levels of gender equality, women’s costs of marginalization due to violence tend to be higher compared to those with intermediate levels. Consequently, in societies with either low or high gender equality, women protesters are more likely to stand at the frontlines to prevent violence, thereby reducing the probability of violence. Thus, protest violence is more likely to occur in societies with intermediate levels of gender equality. The argument is primarily supported by multiple datasets, including Women in Resistance (WiRe), Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), and Social Conflict Analysis Data (SCAD).